When catastrophes hit the world - killing people, wreaking havoc, and threatening our way of life - the world responds with its entire means. However, when even scientists predict a crisis, with evidence in hand, the sceptics can outnumber those willing to respond.
On 16 July 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced a change in reporting the ongoing influenza H1N1 pandemic. They are no longer quantifying confirmed cases or numbers of affected countries because “further spread … within affected countries and to new countries, is considered inevitable” but also because of the unprecedented speed at which the virus is spreading.
Projections and predictions, in blogs and mainstream media, cover both extremes from dismissing the pandemic as hyped to emphasising worst-case scenarios as the best course of action. Very few query what is needed to prevent the worst from happening - or at least to limit its consequences.
May yet mutate
Neither approval nor scepticism can change the reality that the virus is spreading and affecting more people, and may yet mutate into a more severe form and cause a significant increase in mortality.
The uncertainty about if and when this might happen is in the nature of scientific search for truth. The big question that needs answering now is while we hope for the best, what do we do in preparation for the worst, which might come sooner than we know?
So far, two big solutions are suggested - vaccines and antiviral medications.
First doses of vaccine
The first doses of the vaccine can be available in late September and the most optimistic production estimates are at 4.9 billion doses in the following 12 months, a more conservative estimate puts the production capacity at 1 to 2 billion doses per year.
Experts recommend that priority for vaccination be given to health care workers and high-risk groups, but several rich countries already pre-ordered enough vaccine to cover their entire populations. This means that health workers and at-risk groups in less fortunate parts of the world will have to wait until more vaccines are available. This amounts to a real concern because developing countries may be left behind, overly exposed to the dangers presented by H1N1. That this could happen in countries, where there is a poor capacity to counter the pandemic threat only serves to increase anxieties.
Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) is the antiviral medicine that H1N1 responds to now, but this can change rapidly and resistant strains are already appearing. Additionally, with only several million doses available and insufficient production capacity, this is another solution that, despite the WHO’s efforts, may also be a case of “if you can pay you’re okay”.
Health infrastructure
So where does that leave the rest of us – those on modest or average incomes, or the billions who live in poverty, with no health infrastructure, and who are not likely to receive vaccines or medicines?
There are some simple solutions that will make it less likely that you will to catch the virus or, should you be infected, to pass it to your friends and family.
If you wash your hands regularly, keep a safe distance from people who might be sick, cover your nose and mouth with a tissue or sleeve when you cough or sneeze, and avoid crowded areas, you will be less likely to contract the disease. If you did contract influenza, you would be less likely to die from it. This is a fact.
Prevention measures
A recent survey in the UK showed that only 37 per cent of those surveyed used prevention measures and fewer than five per cent followed avoidance behaviour to protect themselves from influenza.
Why such complacency? The survey concludes that when people believe a threat is real and trust the advice they are given, they are more likely to follow the recommendations. However, if they believe “that the outbreak had been exaggerated” they are less likely to change.
This is a time when unfounded scepticism could be life threatening.
Better preparedness
There is a need to promote a culture of prevention and build better preparedness at the individual and community level. The Red Cross Red Crescent has been spreading these messages and mobilizing communities for years in preparation for a pandemic. We continue to do so today, knowing how little time we have.
But this is not enough. Only when everyone takes responsibility for spreading the word, when people have the knowledge and determination to protect themselves, their families and their neighbours, will we will reach a point where we are likely to make a real difference. Such simple gestures can bring about life-saving positive change.
The planet will not be saved by superheroes but by each one of its people. Act now to protect yourself and your family. Take H1N1 seriously, but know it is not too late to be prepared.