Forecast-based financing

About the project

About the project

Climate risks nowadays call for innovative solutions in order to use scarce resources more ...

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Pilot projects

Pilot projects

The action plan centres on FbF pilots by the GRC and National Societies or the World Food ...

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Forecast-based financing (FbF)

Climate-related risks are rising worldwide and the accuracy of forecasts on extreme-weather events have improved significantly over the decade, but humanitarian finance is predominantly available only when a disaster strikes and human suffering is widespread. Many humanitarian actions could be implemented in the window between a forecast and a disaster. Just waiting for disasters to happen is not an option. One of our solutions to this challenge is forecast-based financing, a mechanism that enables automatic access to funding for pre-agreed early action and preparedness for res­ponse based on a specific weather forecast and risk analysis. The FbF approach consist of three components:

Triggers - Based on detailed risk analysis of relevant natural hazards, impact assessments of past events and vulnerability data, “danger levels” for a region are identified. Then, a forecast trigger is selected that will give notice before the “danger level” is reached.

Selection of actions - The pre-defined actions that will be implemented at the time of a triggering forecast to reduce the humanitarian impact of an event.

Financing mechanism - An ex-ante financing instrument that automatically allocates funding once a forecast is triggered, which enables the effective implementation of early actions.

These components are summarized in an Early Action Protocol (EAP). The EAPs serve as action guidelines that delineate roles and responsibilities for quick action when a trigger is reached. The EAPs are agreed by a technical committee that includes designated National Society focal points, scientists and local authorities, especially but not limited to hydrometeorology offices and disaster management agencies, to include clear commitment of implementation among the involved parties. For more information on the FbF methodology http://fbf.drk.de/

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Since 2007, IFRC and National Societies have been developing and working on the concept of Forecast-based action in collaboration with the Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre as the primary technical reference centre. With the German Red Cross and as part of the German Federal Foreign Office’s Action Plan for the Humanitarian Adaptation to Climate Change (https://www.drk.de/en/forecast-based-financing/), pilot projects were initiated in Peru, Mozambique and Bangladesh. As part of the Action Plan, IFRC convenes the annual Global and Regional Dialogue Platforms on to gather meteorologists, climate scientists, humanitarian actors, financing experts and donors to share their experience and provide recommendations on the further development of the science, policy and practice of anticipatory humanitarian mechanism. Together with National Societies and other partners, the IFRC is currently supporting the development of FbF in 17 countries. Last year at the World Government Summit, Red Cross and Red Crescent partners shared in the ‘Edge of Government Award’ made to Togo’s Ministry of the Environment for joint ground-breaking work on forecast-based financing.

Forecast-based Action by the Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (Forecast-based Action by the DREF)

In expanding our coverage of FbF to reach more vulnerable communities and meeting our global commitment at the Grand Bargain and World Humanitarian Summit processes, IFRC extended the scope of our long-standing global financing instrument, the Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF), provide predictable funding of early action by establishing the FbA mechanism. The FbA serves as a flexible funding mechanism and new working modality. By assuring predictability of funds to be automatically released before a disaster strikes and based on forecast information, the FbA mechanism enables National Societies to implement pre-planned activities with partners and communities which reduce risks and enhance preparedness and response.

Where we work

Where we work


Kara Devonna Siahaan
Senior Officer, Forecast-based Financing

Twitter @kdsiahaan 

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is the world's largest humanitarian organization, with 191 member National Societies. As part of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, our work is guided by seven fundamental principles; humanity, impartiality, neutrality, independence, voluntary service, unity and universality. About this site & copyright