International Federation, Sudan 2000

Chapter 8 - summary
Disaster data: key trends and statistics

More disasters – natural and non-natural – were reported for 2000 than in any year over the last decade. Fortunately these disasters proved less deadly than in previous years: around 20,000 people lost their lives worldwide, compared to the decade's average of 75,250 deaths per year. However, last year 256 million people were reported affected by disasters, well above the decade's average of 211 million.

Natural disasters killed a reported 665,598 people from 1991-2000. Of all those killed by natural disasters, 83 per cent were Asians. On average, natural disasters accounted for 88 per cent of all deaths from disasters over the last decade.

While the number of geophysical disasters has remained fairly steady, the number of hydro-meteorological disasters since 1996 has more than doubled. During the past decade over 90 per cent of those killed by natural disasters lost their lives in hydro-meteorological events such as droughts, windstorms and floods.

Floods accounted for over two-thirds of the annual average of 211 million people affected by natural disasters, while famine affected nearly one-fifth. Yet floods proved less deadly, accounting for 15 per cent of deaths from natural disasters, compared to famine's 42 per cent.

The cost of damage inflicted by disasters is notoriously difficult to estimate. The most expensive disasters are floods, earthquakes and windstorms. While earthquakes accounted for 30 per cent of estimated damage, they killed just 9 per cent of all those killed by natural disasters. Meanwhile, famine killed 42 per cent, but accounted for just 4 per cent of damage, over the past decade.

Of the 2,557 natural disasters reported since 1991, more than half were in countries of medium human development. However, two-thirds of those killed came from countries of low human development (LHD), while just 2 per cent came from highly developed nations. By comparing the totals reported killed with the total number of disasters, the effect of development on disasters becomes stark. On average, 22.5 people die per reported disaster in highly developed nations, 145 die per disaster in nations of medium human development, while each disaster in LHD countries claims an average of 1,052 people.

When it comes to those affected by natural disaster, 88 per cent are from countries of medium human development, while just one-tenth are from countries of low human development. This may be explained by the fact that the United Nations (UN) categorizes China and India, home to some of the world's biggest natural catastrophes, as nations of medium human development.

Estimated cost of damage tells a different story: 58 per cent of the direct costs of natural disasters is borne by highly developed countries, although these nations account for just 2 per cent of deaths. Meanwhile, LHD countries, which account for 67 per cent of deaths, bear just 4 per cent of the costs. Comparing estimated costs of natural disasters with the numbers reported, the average disaster costs highly developed nations US$ 636 million, medium developed nations US$ 209 million, and LHD nations US$ 79 million.

Looking back over two decades, 1991-2000 proved less deadly than 1981-1990. The average number of those killed by natural and non-natural disasters fell from 86,328 to 75,252. However more people were affected by disasters over the last decade – up from an average of 147 million per year (1981-1990) to 211 million per year (1991-2000).

Of the 2.3 million people reported as killed by conflict from 1991-2000, over three-quarters were from nations of low human development. Of the 665,600 reported killed by natural disasters over the same period, two-thirds were from LHD nations. Meanwhile, of the 86,923 deaths reported over the decade from technological disasters, 64 per cent were in nations of medium human development.

Combining the above figures, just over 3 million people reportedly lost their lives to conflict and both natural and technological disasters over the last decade. Conflict claimed the lion's share – killing over three times the number killed by natural disasters. However, natural disasters reportedly affected on average 211 million people per year from 1991-2000. This is seven times more than the average of 31 million people annually affected by conflict.

When statistics over the last decade are totalled up, an average of 242 million people per year are killed and affected by disasters and conflicts. For all three categories of nation – low, medium and high human development – the total killed and affected by natural disasters is higher than the total killed and affected by conflict.

Many of these millions – whether refugees fleeing the fighting in Afghanistan and Angola, or Chinese and Bangladeshis fleeing annual floods – are affected by conflict and disaster year after year. For them, development hardly has a chance to take hold – it is denied by disaster.

For the second successive year, official development assistance (ODA) from the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD) Development Assistance Committee (DAC) donors has risen, reaching US$ 55 billion in 1999. This represents a rise of US$ 3 billion from 1998 – a real terms increase of 5.6 per cent, most of which is accounted for by Japan's increased giving. Japan, the largest donor, has increased its ODA by 70 per cent in real terms since 1996, while other major donors (US, France, Germany, UK) have reduced ODA by an average of nearly 10 per cent over the same period. Since 1991, ODA has fallen from US$ 61.6 billion – a real terms drop of 11 per cent. Over this period the US has reduced aid flows by 30 per cent.

Expressed as a percentage of donor nations' gross national product (GNP), ODA has remained static at an average of 0.39 per cent – well below the UN's target of 0.7 per cent, and down from 1991's average of 0.48 per cent . Only four nations out of the 22-member DAC make the UN target: Sweden (0.7 per cent), Netherlands (0.79 per cent), Norway (0.91 per cent), and Denmark (1.01 per cent).

Bilateral ODA to the 48 LDCs continues to fall. At constant 1998 prices, its value was US$ 16.8 billion in 1991 compared to just under US$ 11 billion in 1999. As a share of 1999's bilateral ODA cake, the LDC slice was a little over one quarter.

Emergency relief from DAC donors shot up 56 per cent in real terms, from US$ 2.8 billion in 1998 to US$ 4.4 billion in 1999. Roughly one-third of this leap is accounted for by spending in the Balkans. All DAC donors, except Denmark, increased emergency spending. The US increased relief donations by 76 per cent from US$ 898 million in 1998 to US$ 1,579 million in 1999 (at 1998 prices). However, the share of total bilateral emergency relief which goes to LDCs has shrunk from 46 per cent in 1995 to just 28 per cent in 1999.

This chapter was written by Jonathan Walter, editor of the World Disasters Report. CRED (the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, University of Louvain, Belgium) supplied the data. The box was written by Charlotte Benson, an economist who has worked as a consultant for the World Bank.