Marko Kokic/International Federation

Chapter 8 - summary
Disaster data: key trends and statistics

Over the past decade, the number of 'natural' and technological disasters has risen. From 1994 to 1998, reported disasters averaged 428 per year - from 1999 to 2003, this figure shot up by two-thirds to an average 707 disasters each year. The biggest rise was in countries of low human development, which suffered an increase of 142 per cent. Transport accidents registered the biggest rise, climbing 75 per cent during the second half of the decade. However, our tables only account for accidents where at least 10 people were killed or 100 affected by a single incident.

Both hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters have become more common, becoming respectively 68 per cent and 62 per cent more frequent over the decade. This reflects longer-term trends. However, weather-related disasters still outnumber geophysical disasters by nine to one over the past decade. Among natural disasters, floods are the most reported events in Africa, Asia and Europe, while windstorms are most frequent in the Americas and Oceania.

Last year's death toll of nearly 77,000 was triple the total for 2002 - with countries of medium and high development hit hardest. Disasters cost around 31,000 lives in Europe last year - mainly due to the August heat wave. This figure was eight times higher than the average annual death toll from disasters in Europe for the previous nine years. The earthquake which devastated the Iranian city of Bam claimed at least 26,000 lives. Deaths in countries of low human development (LHD) last year fell to their lowest level for nine years. However, over the decade, more than half of those killed by natural disasters lived in LHD countries.

Drought and famine have proved the deadliest disaster of the decade worldwide, accounting for at least 275,000 deaths since 1994 - nearly half the total for all natural disasters. Over the past 10 years, drought and famine claimed over 1,000 lives per reported disaster, earthquakes killed an average of 370 people per disaster, while extreme temperatures claimed over 300 lives per disaster.

Despite the increased number of disasters, average annual death tolls have dropped from over 75,000 per year (1994 to 1998) to 59,000 per year (1999 to 2003). However, over the same period, the numbers affected continued to climb. For the first five years of the decade, an average of 213 million people were affected. The second half of the decade saw this figure rise by over 40 per cent to an average of 303 million per year.

The reason less people are dying from hydro-meteorological disasters, in particular, may be partly explained by better satellite forecasting and early warning systems. Equally, systematic disaster preparedness at community level has helped reduce death tolls. The fact that more people are being affected by disasters reflects a combination of factors: rising numbers of reported disasters; rapid population increase in poorer parts of the world; and rapid, unplanned development (particularly in urban areas).

Impacts vary enormously according to the level of human development achieved in the country where disaster strikes. Over the past decade, disasters in countries of high human development (HHD) killed an average of 44 people per event, while disasters in countries of low human development (LHD) killed an average of 300 people each.

However, disasters in HHD countries inflicted an average of US$ 318 million worth of damage per event - over 11 times higher than the US$ 28 million recorded per disaster in LHD countries. However, the statistics fail to capture the far more devastating impact which disasters have on GDP in poorer countries.

Turning to aid flows, official development assistance (ODA) from members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development grew significantly to US$ 58.3 billion in 2002 - a gross increase of 11.3 per cent compared to 2001. Canada, France, Greece, Ireland and Italy increased their contributions by more than 30 per cent. The biggest individual increases came from France (up US$ 1.28 billion) and the United States (up US$ 1.86 billion).

Among the five biggest donors, aid from the US has grown significantly since 1997. Meanwhile, contributions from the UK over the past decade have steadily increased to match levels given by France and Germany, whose aid has declined since the mid-1990s. Japan was the world's largest donor of ODA until 2000, after when levels fell below US donations.

Expressed as a percentage of donor countries' gross national income (GNI), only five countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, The Netherlands and Luxembourg) exceeded the UN's 0.7 per cent target. Compared to 2001, the proportion of aid as a percentage of their GNI increased for Australia, Belgium, Canada, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and the US.

Meanwhile emergency/distress relief (not including relief provided by multilateral institutions and NGOs) grew from US$ 3.3 billion in 2001 to US$ 3.9 billion in 2002 - an increase of 18 per cent. As in previous years, the US were the biggest donor of emergency/distress relief, accounting for 36 per cent of all donations. However, DAC rules allow donors to define spending on refugees hosted in donor countries as part of their emergency/distress relief (this amounted to 25 per cent of the total in 2001).

Calculating the full amount spent on humanitarian relief is notoriously difficult, as different donors account for their relief contributions in different ways. The total of US$ 3.9 billion for emergency relief quoted above does not present the full picture. Independent reports suggest that global humanitarian assistance totals at least $10 billion a year. During 2001, this broke down as follows:

• OECD DAC donors' humanitarian aid (not including expenditure on refugees hosted in donor countries): US$ 4.2 billion;
• OECD DAC donors' spending on post-conflict peace activities: US$ 4 billion;
• Humanitarian assistance from non-DAC donors (especially Saudi Arabia and South Korea): US$ 500 million;
• Voluntary contributions from the public via NGOs: US$ 700 million-US$ 1.5 billion; and
• Multilateral humanitarian aid (via NGOs, UN, International Organizations) not captured by DAC statistics: US$ 400 million.
  

This analysis was contributed by Jonathan Walter, editor of the World Disasters Report, and by CRED team members Philippe Hoyois, senior research fellow; Regina Below, EM-DAT disaster database manager; and Debarati Guha-Sapir, director.